Posted by: Peter Houston | July 27, 2010

Are Aaron Hill and Adam Lind just bad hitters?

Who is in a bigger slump: Jays Balk or Aaron Hill/Adam Lind?

While we haven’t pumped out a post in nearly a month a half, that’s roughly the same amount of time since either of our “2-3” hitters have pumped out a hit. OK, that’s not true.

What is true is that Aaron Hill and Adam Lind have completely and utterly and absolutely failed to re-create their breakout seasons in 2009. Not only have they failed to do that, they’ve failed to be even average hitters. Adam Lind’s WAR is -0.6. Yes, NEGATIVE 0.6. He is actually less valuable than an average AAA replacement player. So much for being one of the most dangerous hitters in the AL.

Aaron Hill hasn’t been much better either. Reaching the Mendoza Line has actually been one of the highlights of his season. Somehow his WAR is a lofty 0.5.

The question is: what’s wrong with them? Last season they were one of the better 2-3 hitters in the league. Have they actually lost it? Are they even good hitters? Was last season just an aberration?

The good news for Jays fans is that the signs point to: No, Yes and No. If you look at their BAbip, which is on average at about .300 for the league, you’ll notice that they’re not getting much luck.

Aaron Hill’s BAbip: A jaw dropping .195. That basically means he’s hitting a rediculous amount of balls right at fielders.
Adam Lind’s BAbip: .263. Nowhere near Hill, but still below average.

There are other signs that they should be breaking out of their season long slumps sooner rather than later. After having his batting average slowly decline as the season wore on, Lind has hit .293 in July. Hill’s batting average by month? April: .162 May: .184 June: .198 July: .257. Hey, at least it’s always going up.

Another encouraging sign for Hill is that his K/BB ratio is way down. Last year it was 2.33 and this year it’s 1.59. That’s usually a good thing.

To be honest, before looking at those stats, I was worried it wasn’t a slump at all, it was just reality. But, most of the indicators indicate that it is indeed a slump and that it shouldn’t last for long. As for the Jays Balk slump, it has also come to an end. However, it looks as though breaking out of the slump may have raised our trade value. A well informed executive at Jays Balk spoke on the condition of anonymity and informed me that the writers may be on their way to another blog in the near future. Stay tuned…


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